Dick's Sporting Goods: A Potential 2.5x Return In Two Years

3/26/20

Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) has been hit hard along with the negative market sentiment. Even after the company reported positive operating results for the full year 2019, its share continued to tank further, losing 65% of the market value year-to-date. With the target of $50 per share, we can take advantage of this overreaction in the stock market to buy in Dick's at the cheap price.

In the retail business, the most important number is the same store sales growth, measuring the sales growth at existing locations that have been opened at least one year. In the fourth quarter 2019, Dick's achieved a comparable same store sales growth of 5.3%, thanks to the increase in both purchase ticket and transaction volume of all three main categories including apparel, footwear and hardlines. For the full year, the same store sales growth came in at 3.7%, the highest in the past five years. In order to achieve this good operating performance, Dick's management has implemented a lot of business changes and initiatives. The company has improved the in-stock position and had better and effective merchandise presentations, as well as rearranging floor space for growing categories. In addition, it has been rapidly removing its hunt category out of 135 existing stores, and replacing with more relevant products for the general market. The rise in 2019 comparable sales indicated that its strategic action to exit hunt category and focus on the athletes' apparel and footwear is a right move.

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