In their new book, The Q Factor: the elusive search for the next great NFL quarterback - Brian Billick, Super Bowl-winning coach of the Baltimore Ravens/NFL analyst, and co-author/collaborator James Dale, set out to crack the code of spotting the most critical player in sports, an NFL quarterback.
Billick and Dale put the 2018 draft class under the microscope – Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson—the most highly-touted in a decade. They examined their skills, stats, performance, character, tangibles and intangibles to find a way to prognosticate future performance slightly better, because slightly better can be the difference between good and great - one more TD or win or playoff spot or Super Bowl - that is, The Q Factor.
Along the way, they may have come upon indicators of how to predict success slightly better in other fields, notably business. And in business, a better signal-caller can be the difference between profit and loss, innovation or struggle, market dominance or Chapter 11.
Citzybizlist presents Part III in a series on what they learned:
Part III - Extrapolations
Look for “extrapolations” – not isolated stats or data, but trends and patterns of performance
Scrap the old rules – they’re too often myths, not facts, perpetrated by fat old scouts sitting on bar stools or has-been business execs recalling the good old days: Look for performance that shows over time. Similarly, look for problems that recur. Beware of “highlights” – they are entertaining, heart-stirring moments, exciting, yes, but they may be flukes. Every single first round QB pick has had a killer highlight reel. Think Johnny Manziel or Jamarcus Russell or too many to list… Only a handful have great performances over time, game after game, when plays went right and when they went wrong. Look for patterns/trends that keep happening. And never, ever let “need” sell you on the wrong leader. Don't be the team that “needs” a quarterback because of owner pressure/fan pressure/win pressure. You have to resist the temptation to reach for someone who doesn’t have the goods or try to sell yourself that he will develop them over time. He won’t. Beware of need.
Of course, “need” occurs in business too. Just as teams get in trouble, so do businesses. Negative quarters. No dividends. Lost market-share. Financial discrepancies. Need, need, need. That’s why there’s so much CEO turnover. GE had long-term success with Jack Welsh and Jeffrey Immelt (think the 49ers with Montana and Young) but the next successor only lasted a year. Recently we’ve seen “boss wanted” signs at Boeing, WeWork, McDonald’s Nike, United Airlines, Wells Fargo, even red hot SoulCycle. The average CEO tenure is down to 7.6 years, pretty comparable to the tenure of a head coach (even a winning head coach). The pressure to win leads to need. Need often leads to desperation. Or selling yourself on a bad choice.
Stats vs. Trends: Great QBs don’t just have isolated stats – i.e. completion rate, passer rating, etc. They have total performances. They have stats but they’re in context, evident in game films; that show as recurrent trends over time. The stats that matter are the ones that add up to consistent success (or not). The ultimate stat is: finding ways to advance the ball one way or another.
Great execs don’t have isolated stats – i.e. business school grades, advanced degrees, or occasional quarterly dividends. They also have stats that add up to performance. They consistently spot weakness in competition (Amazon vs. traditional retail), or unmet needs in the marketplace (Uber, Instacart), or outdated models (old mortgagers vs. Rocket/Quicken). They view the “whole field”– 360 degrees of the marketplace, finding holes, staying mobile, not getting “sacked” or “blind-sided.” They have stats and outcomes proven in the context of real-world business.
Study the film: Look at the “film” of the QB or of the CEO or the entrepreneur, the game film or film of life. It’s in the evidence, in the background, in the references, in the patterns leading up to now. What did the candidate do as a kid? When did he/she show the first signs of business acumen? Remember, great athletes/leaders often “declare early” – that is, they realize that another year of college ball or another year in business school, even at Harvard, may not make a better leader. That leader may be ready now.
Alignment is everything. It’s the marriage.
The match of QB to coach is the match of CEO to board or investors.
Don’t a jam square peg in a round hole: In football, you can’t jam a mobile QB into pocket passer scheme. You can’t force a dual threat to work in conservative coach’s scheme. Lamar Jackson would not have been the MVP under a different coach than John Harbaugh. Harbaugh embraced Lamar. He didn’t make him into something he wasn’t. The list of coaches and quarterbacks who didn’t find harmony is endless.
In business, you can’t put a free-wheeling entrepreneur into a stodgy old company, with a quarterly dividend-driven structure…unless you take the restraints off, which isn’t likely. Conversely, you shouldn’t put a solid traditional manager into an innovative, digitally-driven platform...unless he/she has shown a remarkable ability to adapt. The board or the investors or the VCs have to flex with the talents of execs. Give them room to be who they are. Again, think Brady and Belichick, or Montana and Walsh, or Reid and Mahomes. And think about the marriage between the next CEO and the board of a bank in Charlotte, or a Fortune 500 company on Wall Street, or VCs backing a med-tech founder in Baltimore, or a digital marketer Boston, or investors bank-rolling a developer in Philly, or private equity behind a streaming video inventor in DC . It’s all in the match.
Invest in the person, not the plan: Playbooks, plays, schemes, business strategies and plans are good guidelines but without leadership, they never happen. Playbooks don’t score TDs, leaders do. Business plans don’t make money, leaders do. Actually, this is something venture capitalists probably know better than big business. They put their money behind a person, a person with an idea, or a track record of making ideas work, not just behind a product or an invention. The person makes the product, not vice versa. In football, the player makes the play, not the other way around. Most QBs can’t do what Patrick Mahomes can do with a run-pass-option. Most entrepreneurs couldn’t do what Elon Musk did with a battery and four wheels. But it’s the alignment, the marriage, the match between the money, the owner, the board and the player, the exec, the leader.
The signal-caller is key. But the marriage with the backers makes it work.
Brian Billick started his career working with the legendary Bill Walsh, became the offensive coordinator for the record-setting Minnesota Vikings offense, then went on to become the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens and the best single defense in the history of the NFL. Under Billick, the Ravens won their first Super Bowl, an overwhelming 34-7 win vs. the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. In 2008, he joined Fox as a commentator and the NFL Network as a contributor.
James Dale has collaborated as co-author on books ranging from sports to negotiation to medicine, including We're Better Than This with Congressman Elijah Cummings, Together We Were Eleven Foot Nine with Hall of Fame pitcher Jim Palmer, The Power of Nice with agent/negotiator Ron Shapiro, Alpha Docs with cardiologist Dan Munoz, and the New York Times bestseller Just Show Up with Cal Ripken Jr.
